中复神鹰(688295)：盈利短期承压 新兴需求放量

Core Viewpoint - Zhongfu Shenying (688295) reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, indicating short-term profitability pressure despite emerging demand growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.557 billion yuan in 2024, down 31.07% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -124 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 139.12% [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 439 million yuan, down 32.57% year-on-year but up 13.50% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -116 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 568.42% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 248.36% [1]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 14.25%, a decrease of 16.36 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 2024 gross margin at 1.46%, down 14.6% year-on-year and 10.1% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Cost and Expenses - The company faced increased financial costs due to the capitalization of project loans being converted to expenses, leading to a financial expense increase of 34 million yuan year-on-year [3]. - The inventory impairment loss was recorded at 75 million yuan, which was 69 million yuan higher than the previous year, impacting the net profit margin [3]. - The total expense ratio for 2024 was 26.88%, an increase of 8.04 percentage points year-on-year, with specific rates for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses showing increases [3]. Cash Flow and Market Conditions - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 540 million yuan, up 121.7% year-on-year, with collection and payment ratios improving [4]. - As of late March, the sales price of T700-12K carbon fiber decreased by 3.3% month-on-month, while other product prices remained stable [4]. - Emerging demand in low-altitude economy and electronic 3C sectors is expected to strengthen the company's pricing power [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company anticipates improved profitability post full production in 2025, with adjusted EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 0.10, 0.29, and 0.42 yuan respectively [5]. - The target price is set at 26.19 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating, with a projected PB of 5 times for 2025 [5].