COSCO SHIP HOLD(601919) 新浪财经·2025-03-27 12:28Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance for 2024, with revenue and net profit significantly increasing year-on-year, indicating robust operational growth despite potential industry challenges [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 233.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 49.1 billion yuan, up 105.78% year-on-year, resulting in earnings per share of 3.08 yuan [1] - For Q4 2024, the company recorded revenue of 59.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 19.6%. The net profit for Q4 was 10.976 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 513.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 48.4% [1] Operational Metrics - The company’s container freight volume improved year-on-year, reaching 25.94 million TEUs, an increase of 10.12%. The trans-Pacific route benefited from a 13% increase in cargo volume due to rising U.S. import demand, while the Asia-Europe route saw a 13.3% decrease in cargo volume due to reduced effective capacity from the Red Sea detour [1] - The average SCFI composite index for container shipping rates in 2024 was 2506 points, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 149.2% [1] Industry Trends - The container shipping industry is expected to face supply pressures, with spot rates potentially continuing to decline. The SCFI rates for European and U.S. West Coast routes have decreased by 54.2% and 41.4% respectively since the beginning of the year [2] - Supply growth is projected at 6.2% for 2025 and 3.3% for 2026, while demand growth is forecasted at 0.0% for 2025 and -4.7% for 2026, indicating ongoing supply-demand pressures [2] - The recovery of the Red Sea route and U.S. tariff policies are critical variables affecting industry supply and spot rates. The current low number of vessels transiting the Red Sea suggests a challenging recovery ahead [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to better-than-expected long-term contract signing prices, the company has raised its 2025 net profit forecast by 13.7% to 27.1 billion yuan and introduced a net profit estimate of 20.5 billion yuan for 2026 [3] - The current A-share price corresponds to 8.5 times and 11.3 times the 2025 and 2026 price-to-earnings ratios, while the H-share price corresponds to 6.8 times and 8.8 times for the same periods [3] - The target prices for A-shares and H-shares remain unchanged at 16.30 yuan and 14.50 HKD respectively, indicating potential upside of 12.5% and 18.9% from current prices [3]