珠江啤酒(002461)：量价齐升 盈利高增

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 5.73 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, up 30.0% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 760 million yuan, up 36.8% year-on-year, aligning with performance forecasts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 840 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, and a net profit of 4 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 20 million yuan in Q4 2023 [1] - The company’s beer volume and price increased by 2.6% and 3.8% respectively in 2024, with Q4 showing a volume increase of 2.1% and stable pricing [1][2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 46.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decrease in raw material costs and structural upgrades [3] Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - In 2024, beer sales reached 1.44 million tons, with a price increase of 3.8%, reflecting a structural improvement in product offerings [2] - High-end products, particularly the 97 Pure Draft beer, saw a sales increase of 14.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved market dynamics in Guangdong province [2] - Revenue from different sales channels showed varied performance, with supermarkets and e-commerce channels growing by 46.7% and 20.5% respectively, while night venues experienced a decline of 4.7% [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 0.45 yuan and 0.52 yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of net profit expected at 23% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - The target price for 2025 is set at 12.60 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 28x, reflecting confidence in continued growth and market share improvement [4]