Dollar General's Strategy To Tackle Debt And Shrink Could Drive Margin Expansion, Analyst Says

Group 1 - BofA Securities analyst Robert F. Ohmes reiterated a Buy rating on Dollar General Corporation with a price forecast of $90.00, citing expected benefits from increasing trade-in activity that will drive comparable sales and stabilize demand from core customers [1][2] - The company observed early signs of increased trade-in activity in late third quarter, with significant levels in the fourth quarter leading to larger basket sizes in both dollar value and units [2] - Dollar General's inventory levels have improved throughout 2024, following aggressive reductions, and this trend is expected to continue into the first quarter of 2025 [3] Group 2 - An accelerated store remodeling plan covering 20% of stores annually is anticipated to reduce shrink, lower maintenance costs, and minimize operational disruptions [4] - The company has several drivers for gross margin expansion, including strategic initiatives, shrink reduction, and lower damages, with the DG Media Network being a key contributor [4] - Dollar General's Back to Basics strategy aims to enhance efficiency and reduce SG&A costs through initiatives like SKU rationalization, inventory reduction, and distribution center resets [5]