中信证券：宏观政策协同有力 关注金融子板块预期改善投资机会

Group 1: Macro Policy Insights - The macro policy focuses on capital replenishment for financial institutions, with monetary policy aimed at reducing overall financing costs and stabilizing bank interest margins [1] - Coordinated policies are expected to enhance consumption momentum and support high-quality economic operation and safety [1] - The implementation of a comprehensive policy package is anticipated to release economic vitality and boost market confidence, creating investment opportunities across various financial sub-sectors [1] Group 2: Banking Sector Outlook - Current monetary policy indicates stable interest margin expectations, with risk mitigation policies aiding in the improvement of bank credit risks [2] - The banking sector is expected to see a slight recovery in growth rates for 2025, with narrowing declines in interest margins and stable asset quality [2] - Overall, listed banks are projected to experience slight improvements in revenue and profit growth year-on-year [2] Group 3: Securities Market Developments - The acceleration of the implementation plan for promoting long-term capital market entry is a key aspect of capital market reforms since September 2024 [3] - The reforms aim to enhance the willingness of long-term capital to enter the market, stabilize returns, and expand the base of long-term funds [3] - Long-term capital is expected to play a significant role in the healthy development of the capital market [3] Group 4: Insurance Sector Trends - The insurance market is experiencing a rebalancing of supply and demand, with a shift towards a slow bull market [4] - Supply-side adjustments are leading to a concentration of life insurance business among leading companies, while demand is shifting towards fixed-income-like products [4] - Leading insurance companies are adopting differentiated competitive strategies to leverage their strengths in the market [4] Group 5: Investment Strategies - For banks, absolute return potential is expected, with a positive credit issuance strategy and stable asset pricing anticipated for Q1 2025 [5] - In the securities sector, long-term positioning around supply-side reforms and strong fundamentals is recommended, particularly for undervalued stocks [5] - The insurance sector is expected to enter a prolonged low-interest-rate phase, with opportunities for growth among leading companies [5]