GF SECURITIES(000776) 智通财经网·2025-03-30 23:25Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is leading globally, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 16.8% and 23.2% respectively as of March 28, 2025, indicating a significant revaluation of core technology assets [1][2] - The cumulative increase of Hong Kong tech leaders has surpassed that of US tech leaders since the beginning of 2024, reflecting strong performance in the sector [1][2] - The internet sector continues to maintain robust absolute growth, while the real estate sector shows signs of recovery from previous downturns, although confirmation is pending until all reports are released [3] Market Performance - The overall market performance indicates that the Hong Kong core indices are outperforming global counterparts, with significant contributions from valuation increases [2] - The market's earnings yield (ERP) is approaching historical high-pressure levels, suggesting increased volatility and market speculation [2] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has been a major contributor to this year's market gains, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio remains relatively low compared to global earnings levels [2] Fundamental Analysis - Preliminary statistics for the 2024 annual reports show that approximately 84% of Hong Kong stocks have disclosed their results, confirming a stabilization in the fundamentals [2] - The net profit growth for all Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong Stock Connect, and H-shares is reported at 12.0%, 4.9%, and 33.5% respectively, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2] Sector Focus - Future attention is directed towards two key marginal sectors: the Hang Seng Internet sector, which requires monitoring for base effect issues, and the cyclical/real estate chain, which is expected to show signs of recovery as downward pressures ease [3] - The internet sector continues to exhibit strong growth, while the real estate sector is beginning to show signs of a turnaround from previous challenges [3] Capital Flow and Pricing Issues - The overall capital flow in the Hong Kong market is at its highest level in the past decade, as indicated by absolute trading volumes and turnover rates [4] - Southbound capital is gaining pricing power, with a notable overweight in dividend-paying sectors and significant inflows into growth sectors [4] - Recent trends show that overseas capital has experienced a pattern of active selling followed by slight recovery, with a current trend of active outflows and passive inflows [4]