ICBC(601398) 新浪财经·2025-03-31 04:32Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in 2024 aligns with expectations, showing slight growth in net profit while experiencing declines in pre-provision profit and operating income [1] Revenue and Profit Trends - Revenue and profit growth rates are recovering, with net profit, pre-provision profit, and operating income showing increases of 0.3 percentage points, 1.1 percentage points, and 1.3 percentage points respectively compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - Net interest income decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, but the decline rate improved by 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, attributed to accelerated asset growth and stabilized interest margins [2] - Net fee income fell by 8.3% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in growth rate by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, indicating a recovery in the middle-income business [2] - Other non-interest income grew by 9.2% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased from 17.5% in the previous three quarters due to a decline in investment income [2] Credit and Asset Management - The company focused credit allocation on key sectors, with total assets and loans growing by 9.2% and 8.8% year-on-year respectively, showing an increase in total asset growth compared to the previous three quarters [2] - Loan growth in key areas such as manufacturing, technological innovation, green finance, inclusive finance, and agriculture remained robust [2] Liability Cost and Interest Margin - The company's net interest margin for 2024 is 1.42%, showing a slight decrease of 1 basis point compared to the previous three quarters; the fourth quarter net interest margin was 1.34%, down 4 basis points from the third quarter [3] - The yield on interest-earning assets was 2.95%, down 5 basis points from the third quarter, while the yield on interest-bearing liabilities was 1.80%, down 1 basis point [3] - The optimization of liability costs has slowed the decline in interest margins [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast remains largely unchanged, with the current A-share price corresponding to 0.6 times P/B for 2025 and 2026, and H-share price corresponding to 0.5 times and 0.4 times P/B for the same years [4] - The target price for A-shares is maintained at 8.67 yuan, representing a 26.1% upside potential based on a 0.8 times P/B for 2025 and 0.7 times for 2026 [4] - The target price for H-shares is maintained at 7.11 HKD, indicating a 29.5% upside potential based on a 0.6 times P/B for 2025 and 0.5 times for 2026 [4]