华新水泥(600801)：出海和一体化业务共筑内需下行期的稳健

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results, showing mixed performance with revenue growth but declines in net profit and adjusted net profit, while maintaining a strong return on equity (ROE) of 8.16% [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 34.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.42 billion yuan, down 12.5%, and adjusted net profit was 1.78 billion yuan, down 23.2% [1] - Q4 results showed revenue of 9.5 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1%, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 43.9% to 1.28 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit rose by 44.6% to 720 million yuan [1] - The company’s EBITDA margin for the cement business decreased to 44% as revenue contribution from cement fell to 55% [1] Business Segments - The company’s clinker sales in 2024 were 60.27 million tons, a decrease of 3%, with domestic sales down 12% to 44.07 million tons, while overseas sales increased by 37% to 16.2 million tons [1] - The company’s aggregate revenue reached 5.642 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 14.3 million tons, while concrete revenue was 8.42 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year [2] - Overseas revenue surged by 47% to 7.984 billion yuan, contributing 23% to total revenue, with new projects signed in Nigeria and Brazil [2] Cost Management - The company implemented cost reduction measures, achieving a 6.6% decrease in domestic cement costs, with a reduction of 15 yuan per ton [1] - The overall gross margin for the company was 24.7%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.1%, down 1.1 percentage points [3] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 37.116 billion yuan, 38.589 billion yuan, and 40.660 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.790 billion yuan, 3.048 billion yuan, and 3.488 billion yuan [4] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position in overseas and non-cement business expansions, despite ongoing domestic demand challenges in the cement sector [4]