10-year Treasury yield tumbles below 4% on fear a trade war will tip economy into a recession

Core Points - U.S. Treasury yields have significantly decreased, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4% due to fears of a global recession triggered by China's retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods [1][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield dropped over 16 basis points to 3.89%, marking the lowest level since October, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell over 22 basis points to 3.50% [2] - China announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods starting April 10, following President Trump's implementation of a 10% baseline tariff affecting over 180 countries, which has led to a surge in Treasury purchases for safety [3][4] - JPMorgan has increased the probability of a recession this year to 60% from 40%, citing that sustained tariff policies could push the U.S. and potentially the global economy into recession [4] - Investors are anticipating the nonfarm payrolls report, with expectations of a 140,000 job increase and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, which will provide insights into the U.S. economic health amid growth concerns [5] - A weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report could exacerbate recession fears, while a stronger report may be viewed as outdated due to the looming impact of tariffs on the job market [6]