CSX(CSX) ZACKS·2025-04-04 15:35Core Viewpoint - CSX Corporation is actively rewarding shareholders through dividends and buybacks, but faces significant challenges from high debt levels and a struggling coal market [1]. Factors Favoring CSX - CSX has demonstrated a shareholder-friendly approach by paying dividends of 882 million in 2023, and 4.73 billion in 2022, 2.24 billion in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders [2]. Safety and Operational Improvements - CSX has made commendable progress in workplace safety, with the FRA Personal Injury Frequency Index improving to 0.89 in 2023 from 1.01 in 2022, and the FRA train accident rate improving to 3.32 in 2023 from 3.37 in 2022 [3]. - The company plans to launch a new safety training program for operations leaders in the current year [3]. Key Risks for CSX - Rail network issues, including locomotive and crew shortages, pose significant challenges that could adversely impact service levels and operational efficiency [4]. - High labor costs, projected to increase by 4% in 2024, contribute to elevated operating expenses, affecting profitability [4]. Financial Concerns - CSX's total net capital expenditures are expected to reach 17.9 billion and a long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of 59% [5]. - The company's times interest earned ratio of 6.5 is below the industry average of 7, raising concerns about financial stability [5]. Coal Market Challenges - The coal market weakness has led to a 10% year-over-year decline in coal revenues to $2.24 billion in 2024, with coal volumes decreasing by 3% [6]. - For 2025, CSX anticipates further declines in coal volumes due to facility shutdowns and mine production issues [6]. - Over the past six months, CSX shares have decreased by 16.8%, underperforming the Zacks Transportation-Rail industry's decline of 5.8% [6].