Should You Buy MS Shares Ahead of Q1 Earnings Amid Tariff Turmoil?

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is expected to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 11, with analysts closely monitoring the impact of Trump's tariff plans on the company's performance [1][3]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $16.63 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 9.9$2.26, reflecting an 11.9% improvement from the same quarter last year [3][5]. - Morgan Stanley has a strong earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 21.03% [5][7]. Investment Banking (IB) Income - Global M&A activity in Q1 2025 was less robust than anticipated, primarily driven by the Asia Pacific region, leading to a consensus estimate for advisory fees of $601.9 million, a 30.6$1.31 billion, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 17.6% [11]. Trading Revenues - Trading performance is expected to be decent due to increased client activity and market volatility, with equity trading revenues estimated at $3.23 billion (up 13.6$2.61 billion (up 5%) [12][14]. Net Interest Income (NII) - The Federal Reserve's stable interest rates are likely to support Morgan Stanley's NII, with the consensus estimate for the Wealth Management segment NII at $1.89 billion, reflecting a 1.8$11.47 billion, indicating a 6.7% year-over-year increase due to ongoing investments in franchises [17]. Strategic Positioning - Morgan Stanley has strengthened its partnership with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, enhancing its capabilities in the Japanese market [26]. - The company has shifted focus from capital markets to wealth and asset management, with the contribution from these divisions rising from 26% in 2010 to over 55% in 2024 [27][28].