Goldman Sachs Withdraws Recession Prediction After Trump Pauses Tariffs

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists initially predicted a 65% chance of a recession within the next 12 months due to new U.S. tariffs, but retracted this forecast shortly after President Trump announced a pause on reciprocal tariffs [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs issued a note predicting a 65% chance of recession due to tariffs that took effect on April 8 [2]. - The prediction was made shortly before 1 p.m. in New York, and the retraction occurred at 2:10 p.m. after Trump's announcement [2][3]. Group 2: Trade Policy Developments - President Trump announced a pause on tariffs imposed on countries other than China, while increasing tariffs on China by 125% [3][4]. - The pause on tariffs is set for 90 days, with a substantially lowered reciprocal tariff of 10% during this period [4]. Group 3: Corporate Strategy Implications - CFOs are urged to "rightsize" operations and adapt new import or manufacturing strategies amid evolving trade policies [5]. - The complexity of global trade is pushing CFOs to take on roles beyond traditional finance, focusing on global supply chain strategy [5].