This Recession-Resistant Stock Is Up 16% This Year. Here's Why It Can Beat Trump's Tariffs.

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment and trade policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, have positioned Dollar General as a resilient investment opportunity amidst broader market declines [1][12]. Company Performance - Dollar General has shown a significant stock performance increase, gaining 4.7% following the announcement of global tariffs, contrasting with the overall market decline [4]. - The company reported same-store sales growth of 1.4% for 2024 and projects a range of 1.2% to 2.2% for 2025, indicating ongoing demand despite margin pressures [11]. Market Positioning - Dollar General's sales are predominantly from consumables, which account for 82% of its sales in 2024, making it less exposed to tariffs compared to competitors like Dollar Tree [5][6]. - The company has a historical track record of outperforming during recessions, with same-store sales growth of 9% in 2008 and 9.5% in 2009 during the financial crisis [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a "Back to Basics" strategy to streamline operations, including closing temporary storage facilities and enhancing store operations to reduce out-of-stock situations [10]. - Dollar General is investing in store remodels while continuing to open new locations, aiming to improve customer experience and operational efficiency [10]. Financial Metrics - The stock is currently priced at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 and offers a dividend yield of 2.6%, making it an attractive option for investors [12].