Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 新浪财经·2025-04-14 00:30Core Points - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5% [1][3] - In Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 590 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 54.5% [1][3] - The company currently has an integrated green aluminum production capacity of 1.4 million tons of alumina, 3.05 million tons of green aluminum, 1.6 million tons of green aluminum alloy, and 820,000 tons of carbon products [1][4] Production and Pricing - In 2024, the company's electrolytic aluminum production increased by 22.45%, with alumina production at 1.4088 million tons (down 1.37%), electrolytic aluminum production at 2.9383 million tons (up 22.45%), carbon products at 805,800 tons (up 2.85%), and aluminum alloy and processing products at 1.2541 million tons (up 1.75%) [5] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in 2024 increased by 6.53%, with quarterly averages of 19,047 yuan/ton, 20,537 yuan/ton, 19,562 yuan/ton, and 20,535 yuan/ton, resulting in an annual average price of 19,922 yuan/ton [5] - The average price of alumina in 2024 increased by 23.57%, with quarterly averages of 3,375 yuan/ton, 3,633 yuan/ton, 3,845 yuan/ton, and 4,538 yuan/ton, leading to an annual average price of 3,854 yuan/ton [5] - The company's aluminum product cost per ton was 14,817 yuan, an increase of 16.29% [5] Market Dynamics - The lack of elasticity in electrolytic aluminum supply is exacerbating the market gap, with rising aluminum prices and declining costs expected to drive profit expansion for the company in 2025 [2][6] - By the end of 2024, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity reached 43.721 million tons, projected to reach 44.36 million tons by the end of 2025, nearing capacity limits [6] - The tight supply situation for alumina has been resolved, with prices continuing to decline; as of April 11, the average price of alumina was 3,394 yuan/ton, down 31.31% from the beginning of the year [6] Sustainability and Competitive Advantage - The company is a leader in green low-carbon aluminum, with over 80% of its production electricity sourced from clean energy, resulting in carbon emissions approximately 20% of those from coal-powered aluminum [7] - The company has received product carbon footprint certification and is among the first domestic enterprises to achieve full industry chain ASI performance and certification standards [7] - The brand value and economic value of the company's green aluminum are expected to increase further under the national "dual carbon" strategy [7] Investment Outlook - Under baseline assumptions of electrolytic aluminum prices at 19,500 yuan/ton, 21,000 yuan/ton, and 21,000 yuan/ton, and alumina prices at 3,200 yuan/ton, 3,000 yuan/ton, and 2,800 yuan/ton from 2025 to 2027, the company is expected to achieve net profits of 7.56 billion yuan, 11.45 billion yuan, and 12.30 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 6.67, 4.40, and 4.10 times [8]