浙商证券：预计25Q1服饰龙头表现有望实现改善 内需关注度提升

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Securities predicts that under a relatively stable domestic demand environment, the revenue and profit growth of major brand apparel leaders are expected to improve on a quarter-on-quarter basis in Q1 2025, despite fluctuations in external demand [1][2] Group 1: Brand Apparel - Retail performance for apparel, footwear, and textiles showed a cumulative growth of 0.3% in 2024 and 3.3% in January-February 2025, driven by consumer confidence boosted by consumption promotion policies [2] - Haier's revenue is expected to grow positively in Q1 2025 due to benefits from FCC and JD Outlet projects, while Semir Apparel is anticipated to see slower profit growth due to ongoing channel investments [2] - In the sports fashion segment, BiYin is expected to lead revenue growth in Q1 2025, although new brand KC's profit growth is projected to lag behind revenue [2] Group 2: Textile Manufacturing - Despite a high base for Q1 2025 manufacturing orders, leading manufacturers are expected to maintain positive order growth, with most manufacturers having a stable demand outlook [4] - Companies like Huali Group, Kairun Co., and Taihua New Materials are expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth in Q1 2025, while others like Weixing Co. and Jiasheng Group are projected to maintain single-digit revenue growth [4] - Profit performance may vary, with some companies experiencing a decline in net profit margins due to new factory launches, while most are expected to maintain stable or slightly improved margins [4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on industry leaders with positive operational changes or attractive valuations, such as Haier, Weiguan Medical, Semir Apparel, and others [3] - Hong Kong-listed sports and functional apparel companies are expected to show resilience, with recommendations for Anta Sports, Bosideng, and Li Ning [3] - High-dividend home textile leaders supported by clear subsidy policies include Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textiles [3]