Group 1 - The core viewpoint of UBS indicates a continuous decline in China's dairy cow inventory, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.5%, reaching 6.09 million heads as of March 2025 [1] - The profitability of dairy farming is under pressure, with approximately 93% of farming groups operating at a loss, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous month, resulting in a milk production profit of -0.36 yuan per kilogram, which is a deterioration of 0.14 yuan month-on-month [1] - Major dairy companies, including Yili and Feihe, have announced fertility subsidy plans in response to national policies, with Yili providing 1.6 billion yuan and Feihe 1.2 billion yuan to support families preparing for childbirth [2] Group 2 - The demand for dairy products remains weak, with retail sales continuing to decline year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [2] - The price of raw milk has slightly decreased to 3.07 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.3% and a year-on-year decline of 12% [3] - The cost pressures from soybean meal have eased due to sufficient supply from South America, although recent tariffs on U.S. agricultural imports may create upward pressure on soybean meal and alfalfa prices [3]
瑞银：乳业龙头宣布生育补贴计划 予中国飞鹤(06186)“买入”评级