浙商证券王大霁：逆风方显韧性，重点关注三大掘金方向

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's resilience in foreign trade amidst global trade headwinds, highlighting significant changes in the economic landscape compared to previous trade conflicts, particularly the 2018 trade war [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Resilience and Transformation - China's economic dependence on foreign trade has significantly decreased, with exports to the U.S. dropping to 14.7% and imports from the U.S. falling to 6.3%, indicating a reduced marginal impact from tariffs [2]. - The country has made substantial advancements in technology and military industries, enhancing its self-sufficiency and systemic risk defense capabilities [2]. - Domestic demand policies are being expanded, with a focus on releasing service consumption potential and addressing real estate challenges, which are expected to mitigate external demand fluctuations [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - The A-share market has shown resilience compared to the 2018 trade war, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a 6% drop during initial tariff announcements, while the Nasdaq fell by 13% [3]. - Following the initial shock, both Chinese and U.S. markets began to recover, driven by diminishing marginal impacts of tariff increases and effective financial market stabilization measures [3]. - Investors are becoming resistant to tariff-related "numerical games," with market pricing increasingly reflecting internal economic dynamics rather than external shocks [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Strategies - Five strategic responses to the tariff challenges have been identified: extraordinary expansion of domestic demand, expectations of monetary easing, accelerated fiscal spending, optimization of real estate policies, and targeted stabilization measures [4]. - Three main investment themes have emerged: technology self-sufficiency and industrial trends (semiconductors, rare earths, military), domestic demand recovery (consumer electronics, cultural tourism, logistics), and dividend assets (transportation, electricity, banking) [4]. - The article suggests that dividend assets are not merely defensive but can also provide growth potential, with consumer and financial dividend assets being closely tied to stable growth policies [4]. Group 4: Asset Allocation and Global Context - The article discusses a new paradigm in asset allocation, where gold is seen as a core hedge against credit risks, with optimistic price targets reaching $3,500 per ounce [5]. - The relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold is shifting, with gold gaining importance as a hedge against dollar credit issues [5]. - The article highlights the importance of monitoring the AH premium index for Hong Kong stocks, suggesting that a breakthrough could attract cross-market capital [5]. Group 5: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - Initiatives like the Belt and Road and domestic circulation are viewed as proactive strategies to mitigate geopolitical risks rather than mere defensive measures [6]. - The article posits that the upcoming 90-day tariff exemption period represents a psychological game, with potential policy fluctuations affecting risk appetite [6]. - A new consensus is forming around themes of industrial chain restructuring, domestic demand transformation, and technological breakthroughs, which are expected to overshadow short-term market noise [6].