Chevron or ExxonMobil: Which Big Oil Leads the Permian Charge?

Core Viewpoint - Chevron and ExxonMobil are focusing on the Permian Basin as a key source of cash flow, but they are diverging in their strategies and execution [1] Group 1: Importance of Permian Basin - U.S. crude oil production is projected to reach 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 13.6 million bpd in 2026, largely driven by the Permian Basin [2] - The Permian Basin is expected to grow by 290,000 bpd in 2025 and an additional 170,000 bpd in 2026, accounting for nearly half of the nation's oil supply [2] Group 2: Company Developments - Chevron holds 1.78 million net acres in the Delaware and Midland sub-basins, with an average daily output of 405,000 barrels of oil, 251,000 barrels of NGLs, and 1.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas in 2024 [3] - Chevron aims to reach 1 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day (BOE/d) by 2025, producing 992,000 BOE/d in Q4 2024 [4] - ExxonMobil's Permian production averaged 1.185 million BOE/d in 2024, up 570,000 from the previous year, and plans to double that to 2.3 million BOE/d by 2030 [5] Group 3: Strategy and Differentiation - Chevron employs a disciplined capital allocation model, focusing on cost control and asset returns, while also utilizing joint ventures and royalty interests [6] - ExxonMobil is focusing on scale and integration through acquisitions, with the $63 billion buyout of Pioneer Natural Resources significantly boosting its output [6] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Chevron has outperformed ExxonMobil over the past six months, despite both facing trade-related uncertainties [7] - Chevron's valuation is attractive, trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.55, compared to ExxonMobil, indicating better value for cash flow-focused investors [10] Group 5: Earnings Forecasts - Chevron's earnings are projected to decline by 2.9% in 2025 but rebound by 23.1% in 2026, while ExxonMobil is expected to see a 10.5% decline this year, with a 21.1% recovery anticipated in 2026 [9][11] - The near-term outlook for ExxonMobil remains uncertain due to integration costs and inflationary pressures [11] Group 6: Comparative Analysis - Chevron is currently better positioned than ExxonMobil, combining consistent execution with financial discipline and a clear path toward production goals [13]