Northrop Grumman-Will Higher Expenses Hurt Northrop's Q1 Earnings Results?

Core Viewpoint - Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is expected to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 22, with a projected earnings per share (EPS) of $6.27, reflecting a 0.8% decline year-over-year. The overall revenue is estimated at$ 10.05 billion, indicating a slight decrease of 0.8% from the previous year, primarily due to a downturn in the Space Systems segment [1][7][9]. Revenue Performance by Segment - Aeronautics Systems: Anticipated revenue of $3,171.5 million, representing a 6.8% increase from the prior year, driven by higher production volumes of B-21 and F-35 aircraft, and increased sustainment work [2][4]. - **Defense Systems**: Expected revenue of$ 1,886.1 million, showing a significant growth of 33.6% year-over-year, supported by higher sales from the Sentinel program and international ammunition sales [3]. - Mission Systems: Projected revenue of $2,763.4 million, indicating a growth of 3.9% from the previous year, bolstered by increased sales in advanced microelectronics and marine systems [4]. - **Space Systems**: Estimated revenue of$ 2,657.9 million, reflecting a decline of 27.3% year-over-year, primarily due to the wind-down of work on restricted space and NGI programs [5]. Backlog and Operational Insights - The backlog for NOC is projected to increase by 16.5% year-over-year to $91.98 billion, indicating strong future demand [6]. - Despite the decline in the Space Systems segment, the overall performance is expected to benefit from favorable operating margins due to efficiency initiatives and international growth [8]. Earnings Prediction and Market Position - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a potential earnings miss for NOC, with an Earnings ESP of -2.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a cautious outlook for the upcoming earnings report [10][11].