Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell GILD Stock Ahead of Q1 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences, Inc. is set to report its Q1 2025 results, with sales and earnings estimates at $6.83 billion and$1.73 per share, respectively, reflecting a positive trend in earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 [1][4]. Financial Performance - The earnings surprise history shows Gilead has consistently beaten estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 19.47% [2][3]. - The current earnings ESP for Gilead is +3.07%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4]. Factors Influencing Q1 Results - Gilead's HIV franchise, particularly Biktarvy and Descovy, has been a significant driver of revenue, with estimated sales of $3.2 billion and$479 million, respectively [6][8]. - The new Medicare Part D model may have negatively impacted sales due to required discounts for Medicare patients [7]. - The Liver Disease portfolio is expected to benefit from increased demand for viral hepatitis medicines, with new drug Livdelzi contributing positively [9][12]. - Sales from Cell Therapy products are anticipated to decline due to competitive pressures, with estimates at $491 million [10]. - Trodelvy is expected to show strong demand, with sales estimates of$354 million [11]. Recent Developments - Gilead's application for lenacapavir is under review in the U.S. and EU, with a target action date set for June 19, 2025 [12]. - The company has received conditional marketing authorization for seladelpar in the EU [12]. Market Performance - Gilead's shares have increased by 14.4% year-to-date, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [13][14]. - The current price/earnings ratio is 13.13x forward earnings, higher than its historical mean but lower than the large-cap pharma industry average [16]. Investment Thesis - Gilead's strong HIV portfolio and ongoing innovation efforts are viewed positively, although there may be slight pressure on HIV sales in 2025 [18]. - The oncology portfolio, including Trodelvy, is diversifying the business, but the Cell Therapy franchise faces competitive challenges [19]. - Strategic deals and collaborations, such as with Merck, are seen as encouraging for future growth [20].