Alaska Air to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 23, with a history of exceeding earnings estimates, averaging a surprise of 33.08% over the last four quarters [1][2]. Q1 Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 2025 indicates a loss of 72 cents per share, which is wider than the previous loss estimate of 55 cents, but represents a 21.7% improvement from the same period last year [4]. - Revenue expectations for Q1 2025 are pegged at $3.19 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 42.9% [4]. Earnings History - In the previous four quarters, ALK reported earnings of 0.97, 2.25, 2.55, and -0.92, with an average surprise of 33.08% [2]. Cost Factors - Labor costs are anticipated to rise significantly, with wages and benefits expected to increase by 64.9% compared to Q1 2024 [7]. - Conversely, lower fuel costs due to declining oil prices are likely to positively impact the bottom line, as fuel expenses are a major cost for airlines [8]. Market Sentiment - Economic uncertainties related to tariffs may have dampened domestic air travel demand, although international passenger revenues are expected to remain strong [6]. Earnings Prediction Model - Current analysis indicates that ALK does not have a strong likelihood of beating earnings estimates, with an Earnings ESP of -3.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [9]. Recent Performance - In Q4 2024, ALK reported earnings per share of 97 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents, and showing over 100% year-over-year improvement [10]. - Operating revenues for Q4 2024 reached$ 3.53 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.51 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 38.4% [11].