JHSY(002597) 新浪财经·2025-04-18 10:39Core Viewpoint - The company reported lower-than-expected financial performance for 2024, but a strong recovery is anticipated in Q1 2025 due to the rebound in sweetener prices [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.303 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 0.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 557 million yuan, down 21% year-over-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company recorded revenue of 1.260 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 4% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 16%, with a net profit of 148 million yuan, up 5% year-over-year but down 9% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The profit distribution plan for 2024 includes a dividend of 8.3 yuan per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 88.58% and a dividend yield of 3.47% based on the closing price on April 17, 2025 [1]. Q1 2025 Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit of 230 to 250 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 78% to 94% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 56% to 69%, exceeding expectations [1][2]. Sweetener Price Recovery - Sweetener prices have significantly rebounded in Q1 2025, with the average price of sucralose at 250,000 yuan per ton (up 78% year-over-year), methyl maltol at 100,000 yuan per ton (up 63% year-over-year), and ethyl maltol at 79,000 yuan per ton (up 25% year-over-year) [2]. - The price of sucralose hit a low in August 2024, prompting multiple price increases across the industry, with prices rising from 100,000 yuan per ton to 240,000 yuan by the end of 2024 and continuing to 250,000 yuan in Q1 2025 [2]. 2024 Performance Analysis - In 2024, the average price of sucralose was 153,000 yuan per ton (down 18% year-over-year), with acesulfame at 38,000 yuan per ton (down 25% year-over-year), and methyl maltol at 75,000 yuan per ton (down 12% year-over-year) [3]. - The company’s food additives segment generated revenue of 2.753 billion yuan (down 4.7% year-over-year), while the bulk chemicals segment achieved revenue of 1.818 billion yuan (up 2.6% year-over-year) [3]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 19.19%, a decline of 4.28 percentage points year-over-year [3]. New Project Developments - The company’s second phase of the Dianyuan project, with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of sulfuric acid and other products, was successfully launched in 2024 [4]. - The company is expanding into high-value new materials and has initiated projects in electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide and lithium battery electrolyte precursors [4]. Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and introduced a forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 865 million, 1.061 billion, and 1.192 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 55%, 23%, and 12% [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.52, 1.86, and 2.09 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 13, and 12 times [5].