President Trump's 145% China Tariffs Will Hurt Amazon. Here's Why I'm Still Buying the Stock.

Core Viewpoint - The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China poses challenges for Amazon, particularly due to increased tariffs on goods sourced from China, but the company's overall profitability may remain resilient due to diverse revenue streams beyond e-commerce [1][2]. E-commerce Impact - Amazon's e-commerce platform is significantly affected by tariffs, with 71% of surveyed third-party sellers sourcing products from China, potentially leading to price hikes and reduced consumer spending [3][4]. - Despite the challenges in e-commerce, most of Amazon's profits do not stem from this segment, as the profit margins from online sales and third-party services are relatively low compared to other business areas [4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q4, Amazon's online stores and third-party seller services generated $123.1 billion in revenue, while ad and subscription services contributed$28.8 billion. Estimated profit margins suggest that ad and subscription services are far more profitable than commerce [7][8]. - The estimated profits from the commerce segment would be $3.7 billion at a 3$10 billion at a 35% margin, indicating a strong reliance on these higher-margin services [7][8]. Cloud Computing Division - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a crucial part of Amazon's profitability, accounting for 58% of operating profit margin while only representing 17% of sales in 2024 [9]. - The shift from local servers to cloud computing and the increasing demand for AI capabilities are driving growth in AWS, which is less susceptible to tariff impacts [10][11][12]. Long-term Growth Potential - The long-term growth trends in cloud computing and advertising suggest that Amazon's profits are likely to continue growing, even if e-commerce revenue faces challenges due to tariffs [12].