Core Viewpoint - Despite stable growth in revenue and profit margins, the valuation of Xtep International (01368) remains stagnant, raising questions about potential investment opportunities and risks in the market [1][12]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Xtep's main brand achieved mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales, while its second growth brand, Saucony, saw over 40% year-on-year growth [1]. - Over the past five years, Xtep's revenue and net profit have compounded at rates of 13.53% and 24.64%, respectively [1]. - The company has maintained a consistent dividend policy, with a proposed final dividend of HKD 0.095 per share for 2024, leading to a total dividend of HKD 0.156 per share, a year-on-year increase of 221.7% [1]. Profitability Metrics - Xtep's gross margin improved from 38.9% to 43.2%, and net margin increased from 7.2% to 9.1% over the past five years [1][3]. - Return on equity (ROE) nearly doubled from 7.3% to 14.1% during the same period [1][3]. Cost Management - The overall expense ratio has remained stable, with advertising and promotion costs increasing but offset by optimized employee costs [2]. - In 2024, the combined advertising, employee, and R&D expense ratios were 26.3%, a slight increase of approximately 0.7 percentage points from 2020 [2]. Cash Flow and Debt - Xtep has strong cash flow, with an average net cash flow from operating activities exceeding RMB 1.2 billion over the past two years [5]. - As of December 2024, cash equivalents totaled RMB 2.98 billion, with short-term and long-term interest-bearing debts of RMB 1.16 billion and RMB 0.867 billion, respectively [5]. Brand Performance - Xtep operates two main brands: the mass-market brand Xtep and the high-end professional sports brand Saucony, with over 6,382 stores as of 2024 [7]. - The mass-market brand contributes over 90% of revenue, while Saucony's revenue share has increased significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 104.3% from 2020 to 2024 [7][8]. Market Position and Valuation - Xtep's profitability is lower compared to peers, with accounts receivable as a percentage of revenue at 33.9%, significantly higher than competitors like Anta and Li Ning [5][6]. - Despite a lack of standout performance compared to industry leaders, Xtep's dual-brand strategy and consistent dividend payouts suggest limited downside in valuation [12]. Analyst Sentiment - Investment banks generally have a positive outlook on Xtep, with target prices above the current market price, indicating potential for future growth [11].
业绩稳增，特步国际（01368）估值为何仍下行？