CMS(600999) 智通财经网·2025-04-21 07:04Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's soybean import demand is expected to be significantly met due to increased production enthusiasm among farmers in South America, leading to a substantial rise in soybean supply for the new production season [1] - Under the current tariff rates, the landed cost price difference between U.S. Gulf soybeans and South American soybeans has further widened, continuously weakening the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans [1] - The estimated domestic soybean supply-demand gap is projected to be around 85 million to 92 million tons, with Brazil's soybean exports to China potentially exceeding 80 million tons by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The global soybean supply is expected to be ample due to the anticipated bumper harvest in major producing countries, which diminishes the likelihood of significant price increases for South American soybeans [2] - Cost factors such as declining agricultural input costs and improved transportation infrastructure in Brazil are expected to provide little upward support for soybean prices [2] - The price of South American soybeans will primarily be driven by supply and demand fundamentals, with short-term trade friction costs potentially affecting prices but not providing a basis for substantial increases [2] Group 3 - Domestic corn and soybean meal prices have fluctuated within a range, with corn prices between 1,700 to 3,100 yuan per ton and soybean meal prices between 2,500 to 5,500 yuan per ton [3] - The impact of raw material price fluctuations on pig feed costs is estimated to be around 0.3 to 0.5 yuan per kilogram, with a very low probability of a 1 yuan increase in feed costs per kilogram [3] - Despite uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations, the overall price movements of corn and soybean meal have been limited by various external factors [3]