A recession is 'certainly on the table,' says Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Carlyle Group, Harvey Schwartz, indicated that while a recession is a possibility, it is premature to determine its certainty, especially in light of recent tariff announcements by President Trump [1][2]. Market Reactions - Stock markets experienced significant declines following tariff announcements but showed some recovery after Trump paused higher tariff rates on most countries [2]. - The White House announced that Chinese exports could face tariffs as high as 245%, with a general 10% import tariff applied to other countries [2]. Economic Outlook - Schwartz suggested that a recession could be averted if markets establish a "new equilibrium" in the near future, although current uncertainty is causing concern [2][3]. - The uncertainty is impacting decision-making processes, leading CEOs to shift focus from growth strategies to contingency planning [3]. Trade Relations - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China are seen as a significant risk, with Schwartz emphasizing the need for cooperation to stabilize the global economy [4]. - China's Commerce Ministry has indicated it will retaliate against countries that pursue trade deals with the US that negatively affect Chinese interests [5]. Market Volatility - Schwartz previously advised business leaders to prepare for market volatility due to tariff announcements, suggesting that the current situation requires continued caution [5][6].