GM-Should You Buy Dollar General Stock at Its Current Valuation?

Valuation and Performance - Dollar General Corporation (DG) is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.38, which is significantly lower than the industry average of 31.95, raising questions about whether the stock is undervalued or reflects underlying challenges [1] - The stock closed at $93.07, with an 11.9% increase over the past month, outperforming the industry's 5.6% rise, and is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [4] Growth Drivers - Despite margin pressures and a challenging consumer environment, Dollar General has gained market share through a resilient product mix, real estate expansion, and strategic initiatives aimed at delivering value [6] - The company has implemented a "back-to-basics" initiative, achieving a 6.9% inventory reduction per store and removing 1,000 SKUs, which has improved productivity [7] - Dollar General plans to execute 4,885 real estate projects in fiscal 2025, including 575 new store openings in the U.S. and up to 15 in Mexico, along with 2,000 remodels and 2,250 upgrades under the "Project Elevate" initiative, which has shown first-year comparable sales lifts of 3% to 5% [9] - The company is expanding its digital presence through a partnership with DoorDash, targeting home delivery to 10,000 locations by the end of fiscal 2025, with initial results showing higher average order values compared to in-store purchases [10] - Management aims to diversify its product mix, targeting a boost in non-consumable sales by at least 100 basis points by fiscal 2027 [11] Challenges and Outlook - Dollar General's core customer base is sensitive to inflation and economic pressures, with a reported 1.1% decline in traffic in the final quarter of fiscal 2024 [12] - Management anticipates selling, general, and administrative expenses to increase in 2025 due to retail wage inflation and elevated depreciation, with the first half of fiscal 2025 expected to be particularly pressured [13] - The company projects a year-over-year decline in EPS for the first half of fiscal 2025, with expected declines of 11.3% and 7.6% in the first and second quarters, respectively [14] - Analysts have revised down the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share, with current estimates at$ 5.55 and $6.14 for the current and next fiscal years, respectively [15] Long-Term Strategy - Management has outlined a roadmap targeting net sales growth of 3.5%-4% annually starting in fiscal 2025, with same-store sales growth targeted at 2%-3% from 2026 [17] - Operating margin expansion is expected to resume, potentially reaching 6%-7% by 2028, with EPS growth of at least 10% annually anticipated beginning in 2026 [17]