UPS Stock Plunges 23.5% YTD: Should You Consider Buying the Dip?

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) has experienced significant stock declines, raising questions about potential buying opportunities amidst ongoing challenges in demand and economic uncertainty [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - UPS shares have declined 23.5% year-to-date, which is in line with the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry's 21.1% fall and a 22.2% dip in shares of GXO Logistics [1]. - Over the past year, UPS shares have fallen 33.7%, worse than the industry's 27% decline, with GXO Logistics and FedEx down 32% and 23.2%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Factors Hurting UPS Stock - Demand Slowdown: UPS anticipates average daily volumes to decrease by 8.5% in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by a decline in shipping demand and a slowdown in online sales in the U.S. [5]. - Revenue Projections: For full-year 2025, UPS expects revenues of $89 billion, significantly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of$ 94.6 billion and lower than 2024's actuals of $91.1 billion [6]. - Economic Uncertainty: Rising inflation and tariff concerns have created market volatility, with fears of economic slowdown impacting UPS's outlook [7][8]. Group 3: Dividend Sustainability - UPS announced a 0.6% increase in its quarterly dividend to$ 1.64 per share, raising concerns about the sustainability of this payout given an elevated dividend payout ratio of 84% [9]. - Free cash flow has been declining, with projections of $5.7 billion in 2025, barely covering expected dividend payments of approximately$ 5.5 billion [11]. Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - UPS stock is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.93, which is considered expensive compared to industry peers [12]. - Recent earnings estimates for UPS have been revised downward, indicating a negative trend in earnings expectations for 2025 [16]. Group 5: Expansion Efforts - UPS is pursuing expansion by acquiring Estafeta, a Mexican express delivery company, and enhancing export services from Kyushu, which are seen as positive steps for long-term growth [18].