爆款疫苗遇冷 百克生物业绩“腰斩”

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline in performance of Baike Biotech, with a sharp drop in revenue and net profit due to the poor sales of its key product, the shingles vaccine [1][2]. Financial Performance - Baike Biotech reported a 32.64% decrease in revenue and a 53.67% drop in net profit for 2024, with a staggering 98.24% decline in net profit for Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [1]. - The shingles vaccine sales plummeted by 69.8% in 2024, leading to an 80% increase in inventory and a revenue contribution of only 251 million yuan, down from its previous strong performance [1]. Market Dynamics - The shingles vaccine, priced at 1,369 yuan per dose, was expected to disrupt the market dominated by GSK's two-dose vaccine priced at 3,200 yuan, but the anticipated market response has not materialized [2]. - The pediatric vaccine segment, which constitutes 68% of Baike's revenue, is facing structural challenges due to a decline in newborn numbers and intense competition from 11 other manufacturers [3]. Competitive Landscape - The adult vaccine market is experiencing fierce price competition, particularly in categories like HPV and influenza, which is putting pressure on Baike's growth prospects [3]. - The domestic shingles vaccine market is becoming increasingly competitive, with over ten companies, including Watson Bio and Wantai Bio, developing products, indicating a potential repeat of the intense competition seen in the HPV vaccine market [4]. Strategic Initiatives - In response to these challenges, Baike Biotech is accelerating its investment in innovative pipelines, including Alzheimer's therapeutic vaccines and mRNA technology, with R&D expenditure expected to rise to 12.7% of revenue in 2024 [3]. - The company is also advancing the development of a recombinant protein vaccine to address diverse population needs, which is critical for its recovery strategy [3].