Mtalco(601677) 新浪财经·2025-04-23 04:28Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 32.32 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.23%, and a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, up 29.76% year-on-year, slightly below previous expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.12 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.25% but a year-on-year increase of 13.07%, with a net profit of 440 million yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.38% and a year-on-year increase of 21.46% [1] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 6.95%, down 2.51 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a gross profit margin of 6.64%, an increase of 11.69 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Sales - The cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products has impacted the company, with export sales revenue for 2024 at 9.09 billion yuan, accounting for 28.1% of total sales [3] - Despite the challenges from the cancellation of export tax rebates, the company’s aluminum sales volume in Q1 2025 was 378,500 tons, showing a 1.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, indicating a recovery [3] - The company’s production capacity is expected to maintain stable growth, with the proportion of recycled aluminum likely to increase due to the commissioning of a new project [3] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates and U.S. tariff policies, the company’s sales volume forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.53, 1.68, and 1.70 yuan respectively [4] - The target price for the company is set at 13.71 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 8.96 times for 2025, down from a previous target of 17.75 yuan [4]