3S(605305) 新浪财经·2025-04-23 08:29Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to exceed performance expectations due to the resonance of domestic beta and alpha, as well as growth opportunities in overseas and non-wind power sectors [1] Market Expectations - The company's main business has limited market space and a low industry ceiling, with a relatively high market share in the domestic wind power safety operation equipment sector, but potential decline in domestic wind power business due to the trend of larger wind turbines [2] - There is significant uncertainty regarding the company's success in expanding into other application fields [2] - Concerns exist regarding the company's exposure to the U.S. market and the potential negative impact of increased tariffs on performance [2] Performance Drivers - The domestic wind power market is experiencing high demand, with projected new installations of approximately 105-115 GW by 2025, leading to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - Product optimization and solution iterations are expected to enhance the value of individual wind turbine configurations, with new products like high-load elevators and dual-machine tower climbing solutions contributing to this increase [3] - The wind power operation and maintenance market presents significant growth potential for the company's long-term performance [3] Overseas Market Expansion - There is substantial demand for retrofitting in the North American and European markets, providing opportunities for growth in these regions [3] - The company has considerable room for improvement in market share in overseas markets, which could lead to incremental performance gains [3] Multi-Sector Expansion - The company is diversifying its product offerings into various sectors such as industrial and construction, emergency rescue, and power grids, aiming to become a platform enterprise [4] - New products like material conveyors and climbing machines are expected to become key products, with material conveyors aiding in reducing labor costs in overseas photovoltaic construction [4] - The climbing machine is anticipated to be integrated into existing tower cranes, enhancing safety and efficiency [4] U.S. Market Strategy - The company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in the U.S., allowing for rapid establishment of local production capacity if needed [4] - The company’s main product, the anti-climbing device, holds a near 100% market share in the U.S. due to its intellectual property, indicating strong pricing power [4] - The anti-climbing device is expected to help clients significantly reduce safety risks and labor costs, increasing demand in the context of rising inflation [4] Performance Metrics and Catalysts - Key performance indicators include global wind power new bidding volumes, year-on-year growth in installed capacity, changes in the company's overseas market share, and order growth for high-value products [5] - Catalysts for performance include lower-than-expected tariff increases in the U.S., high growth in domestic wind power new bidding volumes, and significant orders in emerging application fields [5] Unique Insights - The market perceives a limited ceiling for the wind power safety operation equipment industry, but the company is expected to counteract potential declines through product upgrades and solution optimizations [6][7] - The company is positioned to maintain rapid growth in the wind power sector and expand into new markets, supported by a strong alpha logic [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 402 million, 470 million, and 574 million from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 17%, and 22%, respectively, resulting in a CAGR of 20% [8]