Nike Stock Has Cratered This Year. Time to Buy?

Core Viewpoint - Nike's stock has experienced a significant decline of approximately 50% since the beginning of 2024, with a year-to-date drop of 28% following a previous 30% decline at the end of 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Nike's recent quarter saw a revenue decrease of 9% year over year, with earnings per share falling by 30% to $0.54. This trend is consistent with the trailing nine-month period, where total revenue and earnings per share also fell by 9% and 26% year over year, respectively [3]. - The company anticipates further deterioration in its fiscal fourth-quarter performance, projecting revenue to decline in the mid-teens year over year. Additionally, the gross profit margin is expected to narrow by 400 to 500 basis points compared to the previous year, worsening from a 330 basis point decrease in the fiscal third quarter [5]. Challenges - Nike faces several challenges, including a competitive promotional environment, currency headwinds, restructuring efforts, and tariffs. The recent tariff announcements have complicated global trade, potentially increasing costs and negatively impacting consumer demand [4][6]. Valuation and Investment Considerations - Despite the stock's decline, it is still trading at a premium, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times trailing-12-month earnings and approximately 26 times the consensus estimate for the next 12 months [7]. - Some investors may argue that the current weak earnings are a temporary setback, and the dividend yield of 2.9% provides a cash flow cushion while awaiting recovery [8][9]. - However, the overall risk-reward profile for Nike stock appears unattractive, with concerns that shares may not appreciate significantly if earnings do not grow as expected. There is also a risk that the company may alter its dividend policy if business conditions worsen [10]. Future Outlook - Investors are advised to be patient and consider waiting for a more conservative valuation, potentially around a price-to-earnings multiple of 20 to 22, to mitigate the risk of overpaying for shares [11][12].