甘源食品(002991)：2025Q1表现承压 静待业绩修复

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, but faced challenges in Q1 2025 with a revenue decline of 13.99% and a significant drop in net profit by 42.21% [1][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 14.32% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 16.67%, down 1.14 percentage points [1][3] - Q4 2024 saw a revenue of 652 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.05%, but net profit decreased by 13.91% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 504 million yuan, down 13.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 42.21% [1][4] Group 2: Product and Channel Performance - In 2024, the company’s product segments showed strong performance, with revenue from mixed nuts and bean products reaching 705 million yuan, a growth of 39.80% [2] - The company’s revenue from distribution, e-commerce, and other channels was 1.927 billion yuan, 239 million yuan, and 81 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 22.58%, 10.75%, and 65.45% [2] Group 3: Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 35.46%, a decrease of 0.78 percentage points, primarily due to increased promotional activities and a decline in e-commerce gross margin [3] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 34.32%, down 1.08 percentage points, influenced by rising raw material costs and reduced revenue scale [4] - The company’s selling, administrative, and R&D expense ratios increased in Q1 2025, with selling expenses rising due to market expansion and promotional activities [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its overseas market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, with plans for localized product designs based on market research [5] - A strategic reserve plan and supply chain alternatives have been initiated to stabilize profitability amid rising costs [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 2.609 billion yuan, 3.041 billion yuan, and 3.527 billion yuan, with expected net profits of 391 million yuan, 493 million yuan, and 590 million yuan respectively [5]