Regency Centers to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Company Overview - Regency Centers Corp. (REG) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 29, with anticipated year-over-year growth in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share [1] - In the last reported quarter, Regency's NAREIT FFO per share was $1.09, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of$1.07, driven by healthy leasing activity and improvements in net operating income and base rent [2] U.S. Retail Real Estate Market - The U.S. shopping center market experienced negative net absorption of 5.9 million square feet in Q1 2025, marking the largest decline since Q3 2020, with neighborhood centers accounting for 75% of the demand pullback [4] - The national vacancy rate increased by 20 basis points to 5.5% year-over-year, although it remains near historical lows due to minimal new construction and tenants adjusting their real estate needs [3][5] - Asking rents for U.S. shopping centers rose by 2.3% year-over-year to $24.76 per square foot in Q1 2025 [5] Factors Influencing Regency's Performance - Regency's portfolio is primarily located in affluent suburban areas, benefiting from post-pandemic migration trends and hybrid work setups [6] - The company has a high-quality open-air shopping center portfolio, with over 80$381.3 million, reflecting a 4.8% increase from the previous year, while the FFO per share estimate has been revised upward to $1.14, indicating a growth of nearly 5.6% [8] Challenges Facing Regency - Increased e-commerce adoption and higher interest expenses are expected to negatively impact Regency's quarterly performance [9] - The company's Earnings ESP is currently -0.78%, indicating uncertainty regarding a surprise in FFO per share for the upcoming quarter [10]