沪农商行(601825)：分红比例提升 负债成本优化

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% and 1.2% respectively, which is better than previous expectations of 0.3% and 0.7% due to improved non-interest income from the bond market [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company experienced a year-on-year decline in revenue of 7.4% and a slight increase in net profit of 0.3%, primarily due to a high base from the previous year's property disposal income of 550 million [1] - The company's operating quality remains stable, with a focus on increasing dividend returns, maintaining a rating of "accumulate" [1] Group 2: Asset and Loan Growth - As of Q1 2025, the company's total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 6.8%, 6.6%, and 5.7% year-on-year, indicating a steady expansion of its balance sheet [2] - In 2024, the company added 43.7 billion in loans, with corporate, retail, and bill loans accounting for 53%, 6%, and 40% respectively [2] - By the end of Q1 2025, the loan balance for technology enterprises reached 120.2 billion, an increase of 5.2 billion from the end of 2024 [2] Group 3: Cost and Income Analysis - The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.50%, a decrease of 6 basis points from the first half of 2024 and 17 basis points from 2023 [3] - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities and deposit costs for 2024 were 1.91% and 1.78%, respectively, showing improvements compared to 2023 [3] - In Q1 2025, retail RMB deposit interest rates decreased by 21 basis points compared to the beginning of the year, indicating ongoing optimization of funding costs [3] Group 4: Asset Quality and Dividends - As of Q1 2025, the non-performing loan ratio and provision coverage ratio remained stable at 0.97% and 339%, respectively, indicating steady asset quality [4] - The company proposed a dividend of 0.43 yuan per share for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 33.91%, up from 30.10% in 2023 [4] Group 5: Valuation and Future Outlook - The company is projected to have a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.72 for 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous estimate of 0.70 [5] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 12.4 billion, 12.7 billion, and 13.1 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.8%, 2.3%, and 3.4% [5] - The target price for the company's shares is set at 9.86 yuan, an increase from the previous target of 9.42 yuan, maintaining an "accumulate" rating [5]