森麒麟(002984)：公司业绩短期承压 看好摩洛哥工厂全年放量

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.51 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.19 billion yuan, up 59.7% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.17 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.6%, and a net profit of 460 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 22.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 29.0% [1] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 25.2%, down 14.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to rising raw material costs and a high base effect from tax rebates [1] Production and Sales Performance - In 2024, the company produced 32.23 million tires, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with semi-steel tires and all-steel tires producing 31.30 million and 0.9223 million units respectively, both showing increases [2] - Tire sales reached 31.41 million units in 2024, up 7.3% year-on-year, with semi-steel and all-steel tire sales at 30.49 million and 0.9164 million units respectively, the latter showing a significant increase of 15.5% [2] - In Q1 2025, tire sales faced slight pressure, totaling 7.38 million units, down 3.0% year-on-year, with semi-steel and all-steel tire sales declining by 1.6% and 34.6% respectively [2] Raw Material Costs and Profitability - The increase in raw material costs, particularly natural rubber, negatively impacted Q4 2024 profit margins, with the average price of domestic natural rubber reaching 17,016 yuan per ton, up 14.9% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The average procurement price of rubber for the company in the second half of 2024 was 13.23 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 16.8% increase from the first half [3] - In 2025, the prices of key raw materials in the tire industry showed a decline, which is expected to support profit recovery for the company [3] Future Outlook - The construction of the Morocco factory is progressing steadily, with a construction progress of 89% as of the end of 2024, and the company expects to achieve production ramp-up within the year [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 estimate net profits attributable to shareholders at 2.07 billion, 2.63 billion, and 2.95 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -5.4%, +27.1%, and +12.1% [3] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are projected to be 10, 7, and 7 times, maintaining a strong buy recommendation [3]