珠江啤酒(002461)：利润亮眼高增 势能有望延续

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 1.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 157 million, up 29.8% year-on-year, driven by effective marketing and improved market conditions in Guangdong [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved beer sales of 295,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, outperforming the overall industry which saw a decline of 2.2% [2] - The revenue per ton of beer was 4,164.2 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, influenced by promotional activities and the timing of the Spring Festival [2] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin increased by 2.9 percentage points to 45.0%, supported by a decrease in raw material costs, particularly barley, which led to a 5.8% reduction in cost per ton of beer [3] - The net profit margin reached 12.8%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting improved operational efficiency and effective marketing strategies [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a strong brand presence and consumer recognition in Guangdong, with high-end products like 97 Pure Draft continuing to drive growth [2] - Projections for 2025-2027 indicate an EPS of 0.45, 0.52, and 0.60 yuan respectively, with a net profit CAGR of 23%, surpassing the industry average [3]