双环传动(002472)：新能源齿轮增长亮眼 盈利能力提升

Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of 1.024 billion yuan for 2024, which aligns with expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 25.42% [1] - The overall revenue for 2024 reached 8.781 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.76% year-on-year growth [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, revenue decreased by 7.4% year-on-year and 15.8% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a contraction in steel trading [1] - Despite the revenue decline in Q4, the net profit growth remained strong at 26% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1][3] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 24.4%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the performance of passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle gear segments [2] Business Segments - Revenue from the passenger vehicle segment grew by 26.09% to 5.325 billion yuan, while the commercial vehicle segment saw a decline of 18.01% to 722 million yuan [1] - The electric tools segment experienced a revenue increase of 9.73%, while the engineering machinery segment's revenue decreased by 10.39% [1] - The smart actuator segment showed significant growth with a 69.45% increase in revenue, reaching 642 million yuan [1] Market Trends - The company’s revenue from the new energy vehicle gear segment exceeded a 50% year-on-year growth, accounting for 38.38% of total revenue [2] - The company is expanding its production capacity for coaxial reducers in response to increased order volumes [2] - International sales revenue reached 1.306 billion yuan in 2024, marking an 18.47% year-on-year increase [4] Profitability Forecast - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards by 9.9% to 1.19 billion yuan, with a projected year-on-year growth of 16.3% [5] - The company has introduced a net profit estimate of 1.33 billion yuan for 2026, indicating a year-on-year growth of 12% [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 22.8x for 2025 and 20.4x for 2026, with a target price of 36 yuan suggesting a 12.3% upside potential [5]