温氏股份(300498)：降本增量稳健经营 Q1盈利超预期

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue reaching 104.92 billion yuan, up 16.7% year-on-year, and net profit of 9.23 billion yuan, up 244.5% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 24.32 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.00 billion yuan, up 261.9% year-on-year [2] Group 1: Business Performance - In 2024, the company benefited from significant optimization of breeding costs and a decrease in feed raw material prices, leading to strong profitability in both pig and poultry farming [3] - The pig farming segment saw a notable increase in profits due to a significant rise in pig prices, while the poultry segment experienced stable profit growth despite a decline in sales prices [3] - For Q1 2025, the company continued to see a decline in breeding costs, with pig prices remaining strong, contributing to higher-than-expected overall profitability [3] Group 2: Production and Cost Analysis - The company reported a steady increase in pig output, with 30.18 million pigs and 8.59 million pigs slaughtered in 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 15% and 20% [3] - The average breeding cost for pigs in 2024 was approximately 14.2 yuan/kg, a decrease of about 2.4 yuan/kg year-on-year, positioning the company among the top tier in the industry [3] - In Q1 2025, the breeding cost further decreased to 12.6 yuan/kg, with an estimated profit of about 300 yuan per pig [3] Group 3: Poultry Farming Insights - The company sold 1.21 billion and 280 million meat chickens in 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2.1% and 5.4% [4] - The average sales price for chickens in 2024 was approximately 13 yuan/kg, down 4.6% year-on-year, while the total cost of production decreased to 12 yuan/kg, down 11.8% year-on-year, allowing for profit growth despite market challenges [4] - By February 2025, the total production cost for chickens further declined to 11.2 yuan/kg, with an estimated loss of about 0.5 yuan per chicken in Q1 [4] Group 4: Financial Health - The company's capital structure improved, with the debt-to-asset ratio decreasing to 51.45% by the end of Q1 2025, down 11.92 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The ratio of interest-bearing debt also declined, and the financial expense ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 0.78% year-on-year [4] Group 5: Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 105.59 billion, 111.80 billion, and 121.46 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 9.75 billion, 11.63 billion, and 14.10 billion yuan [4] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 11.51, 9.65, and 7.96 times [4]