Hologic Set to Report Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Hologic (HOLX) is expected to report a decline in second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings and revenues, with earnings estimated at $1.02 per share, reflecting a 0.97$1.00 billion, indicating a 1.56% decline year over year [1][2] Earnings Performance - In the last four quarters, Hologic surpassed consensus estimates three times, with an average surprise of 2.53% [2] - The reported earnings history shows a slight variation from estimates, with the most recent quarter ending in December 2024 reporting $1.03 against an estimate of$1.02, resulting in a surprise of 0.98% [3] Earnings Expectations - Hologic has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, indicating no expected surprise in the upcoming earnings report [4] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4] Challenges Impacting Performance - The company faces challenges such as macroeconomic volatility, supply-chain constraints, cost inflation, and a strengthening U.S. dollar, which are expected to negatively impact performance [5][6] - The Skeletal Health segment is projected to see a significant 32.8% year-over-year decline in sales due to shipment delays [6] Segment Performance - The Breast Health segment is anticipated to experience a 3.6% decline in revenues due to lower sales of capital equipment [7] - The Diagnostics division is expected to show modest growth of 0.5%, driven by strong sales in its core Molecular business [9] - The GYN Surgical segment is likely to see a 3% year-over-year revenue increase, supported by strong international sales [11] Stock Performance - Hologic shares have declined 4.2% over the past 30 days, performing better than the industry average decline of 9% and the S&P 500's 7% decline [12] - The stock is trading at a forward P/E of 13.05X, which is lower than the industry average of 27.41X, indicating a more attractive valuation [16] Investment Thesis - Hologic's molecular diagnostics business has significant growth potential, and the company holds a strong market position in Breast Health with plans for future product launches [19] - Recent acquisitions, such as Endomagnetics and Gynesonics, reflect the company's strong balance sheet and commitment to growth [20] - The company aims for double-digit earnings growth through a combination of steady revenue growth, margin expansion, and strategic acquisitions [20] International Growth Strategy - Hologic is focusing on international growth by going direct in more markets, with the International Surgical business showing over 20% growth [21] - The company expects its international revenues in cytology and STI testing to become significant revenue drivers over time [21] Long-term Outlook - Despite current macroeconomic pressures, Hologic's Diagnostics division is expected to perform well, and the company is well-positioned for long-term growth through its core business performance and acquisitions [22]