开源证券：给予长白山买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Changbai Mountain (603099) is expected to experience stable growth in 2024, but profits in Q1 2025 are under pressure due to various cost factors and weather disruptions, leading to a revised profit forecast for 2025-2027 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 743 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 144 million yuan, up 4.5% year-on-year [1]. - Q1 2025 revenue was 129 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, but net profit dropped to 4 million yuan, down 58.9% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of 186 million yuan and 218 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 263 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Visitor Traffic and Revenue Streams - Visitor traffic for 2024 reached 3.409 million, with Q4 and Q1 figures at 634,000 and 477,000 respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 24.1%, 26.6%, and 2.6% [2]. - The company’s revenue from various segments in 2024 included 538 million yuan from passenger transport, 140 million yuan from hotels, and 34 million yuan from other businesses, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.9%, 0.9%, and 32.1% respectively [2]. Group 3: Operational Developments - The company is actively expanding transportation capacity in preparation for the peak winter season, although actual visitor numbers have been affected by adverse weather conditions [1][2]. - Significant infrastructure improvements are underway, including the expected operation of a high-speed rail station in April 2025 and the full opening of the Shenyang-Baishan high-speed rail line by September 2025, which will enhance visitor access [3]. - Capital expenditures in 2024 reached 167 million yuan, primarily for vehicle purchases, with ongoing projects aimed at increasing operational capacity and enhancing the commercial ecosystem around the scenic area [3].