Citigroup Gains 8.2% Post Q1 Earnings: Buy Opportunity or Bull Trap?

Core Insights - Citigroup, Inc. shares have increased by 8.2% since the release of its first-quarter 2025 results, outperforming the industry growth of 5.7%, indicating investor optimism regarding the bank's performance and positive market sentiment [1][4]. Financial Performance - Citigroup reported a net interest income (NII) of $14 billion for Q1 2025, a 4$7.6 billion, a 1% increase year-over-year, supported by strong performance in markets, banking, and wealth divisions, despite a decline in the All Other segment [6]. - Operating expenses decreased by 5% year-over-year to $13.4 billion, attributed to reduced FDIC special assessment expenses and lower compensation expenses [7]. - Total non-accrual loans fell by 2$2.7 billion, while the allowance for credit losses on loans was $18.7 billion, down 2$2.7 billion, reflecting a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Citigroup is undergoing a business restructuring to streamline operations and reduce expenses, including a plan to eliminate 20,000 jobs over two years, with approximately 10,000 jobs cut in 2024 [9][10]. - The company aims to keep expenses below $53.4 billion in 2025, down from$53.9 billion in 2024 [11]. - Citigroup has exited consumer banking in nine countries and completed the separation of its institutional banking operations in Mexico, which is expected to free up capital for higher-return segments like wealth management and investment banking [12]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a compounded annual growth rate of 4-5% in revenues by the end of 2026 and aims for annualized run rate savings of $2-2.5 billion by 2026 [13]. - Citigroup projects NII (excluding Markets) to rise by 2-3$761 billion, with total debt at $317.4 billion, indicating a strong liquidity position [16][17]. - The company has a$20 billion common stock repurchase program and has repurchased $1.75 billion of common shares in Q1 2025, with similar levels targeted for Q2 [18]. Valuation and Market Position - Citigroup is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 8.65X, below the industry average of 11.94X, indicating a potentially undervalued position relative to peers [22][25]. - The stock is cheaper than Bank of America and Wells Fargo, which have forward P/E multiples of 10.30X and 11.40X, respectively [25].