Will Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Rebound as Earnings Approach?

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks is expected to report its fiscal Q2 results on April 29, with investors hoping for a rebound in stock performance despite a year-to-date decline of 10% and a 28% drop from its 52-week high of $117 per share [1][4]. Financial Expectations - Q2 sales are projected to reach$8.79 billion, reflecting a 2% increase from $8.56 billion in the same quarter last year [4]. - International revenue is anticipated to rise by 5$1.84 billion compared to $1.75 billion in the prior period [4]. - Q2 EPS is expected to decrease to$0.49 from $0.68 per share a year ago, indicating a significant decline [5]. Earnings Performance - Starbucks recently exceeded Q1 EPS expectations by 4%, but has shown an average earnings surprise of -2.34% over the last four quarters [5][6]. - The reported earnings history shows fluctuations, with an average surprise of -2.34% across the last four quarters [6]. Stock Performance - Over the last two years, Starbucks stock has decreased by 24%, and it has only gained 11% over the last three years, underperforming the broader index which has returned over 30% [7]. - The stock is currently trading at 28.6X forward earnings, which aligns with its decade-long median and is below the peak of 95.8X during this period [8]. Valuation Insights - Starbucks' valuation is not excessively high compared to the S&P 500's forward earnings multiple of 21.2X and the Zacks Retail-Restaurants Industry average of 26.2X [8]. Future Outlook - Currently, Starbucks holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), with expectations for a resurgence in profitability next year, but it may be premature to consider it a buy for a sustained rebound [9]. - The potential for meaningful upside is contingent on Starbucks meeting or exceeding Q2 expectations and providing guidance that indicates a return to growth [9].