洽洽食品(002557)：2024年收入恢复正增长 2025年第一季度盈利能力受损

Core Viewpoint - Company reported a revenue increase in 2024 but faced significant declines in Q1 2025 due to various market pressures and competition [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 reached 7.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 850 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [1] - Q1 2025 revenue was 1.57 billion yuan, a decline of 13.8% year-on-year [1][2] - Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders was 80 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year [1][2] - Q1 2025 non-recurring net profit was 60 million yuan, a decrease of 73.8% year-on-year [1][2] Product Performance - In 2024, revenue from sunflower seeds increased by 2.6%, with strong growth in key products [1] - Nut revenue grew by 9.7% in 2024, with gift boxes seeing double-digit growth [1] - The daily nut series experienced a slight decline in revenue [1] Cost and Profitability - The company saw a recovery in profitability in 2024, with gross margin and net margin increasing by 2.0 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively [1] - Sunflower seed gross margin improved to 29.7%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Q1 2025 gross margin and net margin were 19.5% and 4.9%, down 11.0 and 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2] Market Challenges - Q1 2025 revenue decline was attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival and high base effects from the previous year [2] - Increased competition in the nut market and a decline in traditional channel traffic contributed to the revenue drop [2] - Rising raw material costs, particularly for sunflower seeds and nuts, added significant pressure on profitability [2] Future Outlook - The company is adjusting its product and channel strategies amid rising costs and intense competition [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 7.46 billion, 7.80 billion, and 8.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 4.4%, and 4.5% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 690 million, 870 million, and 980 million yuan, reflecting a decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [3]