华夏航空(002928)：经营恢复显著 Q1业绩超预期

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown significant recovery in operations and profitability in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit compared to previous periods [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 112 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses in 2023 [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 1.542 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.62%, but a net loss of 39 million yuan [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.774 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 82 million yuan, representing a 232.31% increase [1]. Operational Metrics - As of Q1 2025, the company operated a fleet of 77 aircraft, with 47 regional aircraft (61%) and 30 trunk aircraft (39%) [2]. - In 2024, the company’s available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) grew by 33.21% and 40.72% year-on-year, respectively, with a load factor of 79.61%, up 4.25 percentage points [2]. - In Q1 2025, ASK and RPK increased by 23.73% and 28.08% year-on-year, respectively, with a load factor of 79.75%, up 2.71 percentage points [2]. Cost and Revenue Analysis - In 2024, the revenue per seat kilometer was 0.4221 yuan, up 0.74% year-on-year, while the cost per seat kilometer was 0.4251 yuan, down 10.42% year-on-year [3]. - In Q1 2025, the revenue per seat kilometer decreased to 0.3974 yuan, down 11.27% year-on-year, while the cost per seat kilometer was 0.4042 yuan, down 8.40% year-on-year [3]. - Other income for 2024 reached 1.293 billion yuan, benefiting from revised regional airline subsidy policies, and in Q1 2025, other income grew by 47.56% year-on-year to 363 million yuan [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Outlook - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 702 million yuan and 1.013 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.203 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 13.7X, 9.5X, and 8.0X [3]. - As the only large-scale independent regional airline in China, the company is expected to benefit from the revised regional airline subsidy policies and improved operational conditions, projecting significant year-on-year growth in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3].