Chipotle Turns Cautious on Consumer Sentiment. Is the Stock Still a Long-term Buy?

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill reported its first same-store sales decline since 2020, with a 0.4% drop in comparable-restaurant sales, attributed to weakening consumer traffic and economic concerns [3][8][4] - The company anticipates same-store sales growth in the low single digits for 2025, slightly lower than previous forecasts, with expectations for traffic to turn positive in the second half of the year [6][5] - Despite challenges, Chipotle continues to grow revenue, reporting a 6% increase to $2.88 billion, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 7$0.29, surpassing analyst expectations [8][11] Consumer Traffic and Economic Concerns - Chipotle experienced a 2% sales decline in January, with management attributing this to severe weather, wildfires, and an unfavorable calendar shift [3] - In February, the company noted a reduction in customer visits due to economic uncertainty, which has persisted into April [4] Financial Performance - Revenue grew by 6% to $2.88 billion, while adjusted EPS increased by 7$0.29, exceeding the analyst consensus of $0.28 [8] - Comparable-restaurant sales fell 0.4%, below the expected 1.7% increase, with transactions down 2.3% and average check rising by 1.9% [8] Operating Margins and Costs - Restaurant-level operating margins decreased by 130 basis points to 26.2%, impacted by larger portion sizes and rising food and labor costs [9] - Chipotle expects ongoing tariff impacts of about 50 basis points, excluding postponed tariffs on Mexico and Canada [9] Growth Opportunities - The company plans to add new locations at an annual rate of 8% to 10% in the U.S. and is exploring international expansion opportunities in Canada, the U.K., Germany, and the Middle East [12] - Chipotle has signed an agreement with Alsea to open restaurants in Mexico, with the first location scheduled for early next year [12] Valuation and Investment Perspective - The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of about 39 based on 2025 estimates, which is at the low end of its historical range [13] - Despite current challenges, the long-term growth story for Chipotle remains intact, suggesting potential for investors to accumulate shares [13]