Can Humana Beat Q1 Earnings Estimates on Growing Premiums?

Core Viewpoint - Humana Inc. is expected to report strong first-quarter 2025 results, with earnings projected at $9.98 per share and revenues at$32.22 billion, indicating significant year-over-year growth [1][3]. Financial Performance - The first-quarter earnings estimate reflects a 38% year-over-year increase, while revenues are expected to grow by 9.8% [1]. - For the current year, Humana's revenue consensus estimate stands at $126.55 billion, representing an 8$16.36, indicating a growth of approximately 0.9% [3]. Earnings Expectations - Humana has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 15.4% [3]. - The company has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.57% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter [4]. Revenue Drivers - Revenue growth in Q1 is anticipated to be driven by higher premiums, with the consensus estimate for premiums at $30.7 billion, reflecting an 8.6$1.7 billion, indicating a substantial year-over-year increase of 110.8% [5]. Membership Trends - Despite the expected revenue growth, total medical memberships are projected to decline by 3.8% year-over-year, primarily due to decreases in individual Medicare Advantage units and ASO commercial memberships [6]. Operating Expenses - Total operating expenses for the Insurance segment are estimated to grow by 7.6% year-over-year, attributed to higher operating costs [7].