Caterpillar Q1 Earnings Coming Up: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Caterpillar Inc. is expected to report year-over-year declines in both earnings and revenues for the first quarter of 2025, with earnings estimated at $4.30 per share, reflecting a 23% decline from the previous year, and revenues projected at$ 14.54 billion, indicating an 8% decrease [1]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 2025 earnings has decreased by 0.46% over the past 60 days [2]. - The current earnings estimate for Q1 is $4.30, down from$ 4.33 30 days ago, and the revenue estimate is $14.54 billion [2]. - The operating income is projected to decrease by 25% year-over-year to$ 2.55 billion, with an operating margin of 18.8%, down from 22.8% in Q4 2024 [10]. Segment Performance - The Resource Industries segment is expected to report external sales of $2.72 billion, a 12% decline year-over-year, with an operating profit of$ 621 million, down 15% [11]. - The Construction segment's external sales are projected at $5.38 billion, reflecting a 16% decline, with an operating profit of$ 1.39 billion, indicating a 21% decrease [12]. - The Energy and Transportation segment is expected to see external sales of $5.5 billion, a slight increase of 0.5%, with an operating profit of$ 1.3 billion, down 0.3% year-over-year [14][15]. Market Conditions - The manufacturing sector showed initial signs of recovery in early 2025 but lost momentum, as indicated by the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, which fell to 49% in March [6]. - The New Orders Index declined sharply from 55.1% in January to 45.2% in March, reflecting reduced customer orders due to rising tariff concerns [7]. Price Performance and Valuation - Caterpillar's stock has decreased by 12.4% over the past year, underperforming its industry and the broader market [16]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of 15.64, which is higher than the industry average of 14.79 [20]. - Compared to peers like Komatsu, Terex, and Manitowoc, Caterpillar's valuation is relatively high, with competitors trading at lower P/E ratios [21]. Strategic Outlook - Long-term demand prospects for Caterpillar are supported by increased infrastructure spending and a shift toward clean energy [25]. - The company has a strong balance sheet, allowing for investments in growth, share repurchases, and dividends [25]. - The upcoming leadership change with COO Joseph Creed succeeding James Umpleby as CEO will be closely monitored for its impact on navigating current challenges [25].