Have Investors Lost Their Appetite for Chipotle Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle's stock has declined over 25% since the appointment of new CEO Scott Boatwright, raising concerns about the company's future performance and growth potential [1][7]. Current State of Chipotle - The company reported a 0.4% decrease in annual comparable-restaurant sales for Q1 2025, a significant drop from the 7.4% increase in 2024 and 5.4% in Q4 2024, attributed to consumer uncertainty [4]. - Chipotle expanded its restaurant count to 3,781, marking an 8% increase with 302 new locations over the past year, and reported Q1 revenue of $2.9 billion, reflecting a 6.4$387 million, an 8% annual gain [5]. Growth Projections - The company anticipates comparable-restaurant sales growth to remain in the "low single digits" for the year, leading to concerns among shareholders about future growth rates [6]. Investment Case Assessment - Historically, Chipotle's stock outperformed the S&P 500, but it has declined 15% over the past 12 months, particularly after the leadership change [7]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 45, which is at the lower end of its five-year range, raising concerns about valuation amidst slowing growth [8]. - Comparatively, mature restaurant stocks like McDonald's and Starbucks trade at P/E ratios of 28 and 27, respectively, suggesting potential valuation compression for Chipotle if growth does not rebound [9][10]. Future Expansion Plans - Chipotle plans to open 315 to 345 new locations in 2025 and is exploring opportunities in Mexico, indicating a commitment to maintaining its expansion trajectory [12]. - The smaller size of Chipotle compared to larger peers may allow for higher percentage growth in its footprint [11]. Investment Recommendation - The current recommendation is to hold Chipotle stock, as it presents a compelling value proposition amid ongoing expansion, despite uncertainties related to leadership changes and economic conditions [13]. - Investors may want to wait for a more favorable entry point or clearer growth prospects before increasing their positions in Chipotle [14].