Super Micro Faces Cautious Analyst View Amid Shifting Customer Demand And Declining Margins

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has lowered its preliminary guidance for third-quarter revenue and adjusted EPS, leading to a significant decline in stock price and analysts revising their price targets [1][2]. Financial Guidance - The company now expects third-quarter revenue to be between $4.5 billion and$4.6 billion, a decrease from the previous guidance of $5 billion to$6 billion [1]. - Adjusted EPS is now projected to be between $0.29 and$0.30, down from the earlier guidance of $0.46 to$0.62 [2]. Margin Analysis - The adjusted gross margin for the third quarter is expected to be 220 basis points lower than that of the second quarter, primarily due to higher inventory reserves from older-generation products and expedited costs for new products [2]. - Margin issues related to Hopper-based products are anticipated to be short-lived, while the inventory write-down impact is expected to be temporary [4]. Analyst Insights - JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee maintains a Neutral rating and has updated his model based on the new guidance, projecting third-quarter revenue of $4.55 billion and adjusted EPS of$0.30 [3][5]. - Chatterjee does not believe the revenue miss indicates an industry-wide demand slowdown but is more related to specific customer decisions [3]. Investor Sentiment - The outcome for the fiscal third quarter has raised concerns about the company's credibility with investors regarding guidance practices, leading to increased scrutiny on future revenue and margin forecasts [5].